![]() Using the area under the line, we can also flip the calcuation. It uses the observations (bones) as the input for a reconstruction of the whole climate picture. The distribution line is like the final picture of the dinosaur. Scientists apply what they call a “distribution” (the dark line in the figure below), a relationship of the magnitude of the rainfall to how often that rainfall amounts occurs (2). ![]() It’s more logical to assume that if we had enough data going far enough back or forward in time, that there would eventually be a daily event filling in the gaps. It’s not physically plausible that the atmosphere would just never produce those rain amounts. In this example, there are no years in which the highest daily rainfall total was between 4 and 4.5 inches, but there are some cases between 4.5-4.75 inches and 5.25-5.5 inches. However, the other thing that is clear is that the spread is incomplete. Only one time in 80 years was there a daily record above 5 inches. In 15 years, the highest daily rainfall total was between 1.75 and 2.0 inches. In 18 of 80 years, the highest 24-hour rainfall was between 2 and 2.25 inches. It is clear that some yearly 24-hour rainfall maximums occur more often than others. NOAA figure based on data from the National Centers for Environmental Information.Ĭertain piles have more items of clothing in them than others: we have more mediums than extra-larges so to speak. 80 of the 82 years had precipitation amounts less than 4 inches. The most common bin, with 18 events, represented daily precipitation totals between 2 and 2.25 inches. Precipitation totals are sorted into 0.25-inch bins. Some years clearly have larger daily rainfall maximums than others.Ī histogram of annual daily maximum precipitation totals for Beckley, West Virginia. Next, I pulled the highest daily rainfall amount that occurred in each year (1). First, I eliminated any year with more than 10 days of missing data. I have compiled over 80 years’ worth of daily rainfall observations from the Beckley VA Hospital in West Virginia, near where June rains were so extraordinary. Let’s work through it with a real-life example. Since we have an admittedly incomplete set of weather observations, we have to use what we’ve got to create an image of the actual climate “dinosaur.” The climate “bones” are all the observations we have. Dinosaurs and dataĮstimating the size of a thousand-year event using a much shorter history of observations is like how paleontologists can take an incomplete collection of fossilized Tyrannosaurus Rex bones and turn them into a picture of what T-rex probably looked like when alive. Even the preliminary totals are enormous, however, with up to 8 inches of rain in many areas of southeastern West Virginia. " Early glimpse" data may not include data from all stations in the reporting network, and totals should be considered preliminary. An "early glimpse" of 24-hour rainfall totals from storms over West Virginia on June 23, 2016, based on PRISM data from Oregon State University.
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